|Card draw simulator|
Odds: 0% – 0% – 0% more
|Lannister KoSw - Raius variation||1||1||0||5.0|
|Lannister KoSw - End version||0||0||1||1.0|
Lanni KotSw in the current metagame, with the focus to metagame:
- Targ SoB
- Bara Qohor
- Barring (his main counter)
1) Kingdom of Shadows: You need to have the Assassin and cycle it extensively, ideally with Tyrion. Otherwise, you are not making enough stable benefits to justify the presence of the module. -> Hired Assassin x3, Tyrion x3, Clever Feint x3
2) Targ Sea of Blood: It is not only about cancelling the agenda, it is also about avoiding military claim on your key characters. You need Strong x3 and OBB x3, then you need Tunnels x3. KoF x3 is a bit your way out because only Jhogo has stealth. Priestess x3 and Flayer x3 help decrease military STR (double military claim, since SoB will play first).
3) Bara Qohor: It is way too fast and they can play KitN/Barring, so this matchup is harsh. The only opportunity window I found was to play Weapons at the Door, name myself first player and drop one of the Pinch x3.
4) Barring: Barring T1 is wasted, so you have a window of opportunity for releasing Nefarious Acolyte in Dominance phase with the agenda reduction if you have the slightest suspicion of Barring. The next turn, the basic plan is Trade Routes and install yourself on table -before- he could benefit from Barring.
Why 63 cards ?
Because you need to have -this- solution for -this- matchup. And solutions are not equal across matchup. So you cannot really make consensus for reducing this at x2 copies... You have to assume diluting a bit your research of key cards for having counters in the diversity of matchups.
Gold Mine is key for allowing this choice: it is completely standard to trigger it twice in marshaling phase. It happens because you do not need two copies of the same card most of the time. Because you have reduced draw, you really want to dig your deck to find key cards.
The main problem with this choice is that competitive SoB and Qohor have high tempo, so you are decreasing your odds.
If I need to go down to 60 cards ?
Recently, I never felt that Ser Mandon Moore was making more than marginal benefits. People draw too much, so he mainly allows to get rid of marginal annoyances. He also provides 4 STR in Military at cheap cost for SoB decks. The occasional game closing when opponent's hand have been emptied simplifies but remain anecdotic. I would not be chocked if he was removed.
Starfall Spy is an economic fix, but making free challenges and bringing high cost characters out-of-shadow seems totally worth it. I always find utility for her. I like flexible playstyle, so this choice fits me.
When The Red Keep will be restricted ?
It will be the restricted of choice.
Before The Red Keep (TRK), I could make the list of matchups and say "I have a problem with this in this, with that in that, etc... and I have a problem about having a bit more of economy in the deck".
TRK was basically the miraculous fix. Shame it does not also have the King trait.
The NW-Wall matchup, for example, was the most explicit change... You were extremely vulnerable to a Wall setup before TRK, because you could not develop and pressure fast. So a good opponent could anticipate your agro move and maintain the necessary resilience to continue scoring points after reaching 6/0 on the first turn. The Wall was the extra powergrab preventing the Shadow player to catch the NW player.
With the Red Keep, you have x3 a location countering another x3 location. Welcome to the realm of neutralization... except that the Lanni Shadow mechanic is more effective than the NW mechanic, so you are basically removing the key extra powergrab giving the key tempo gain.
And it's always like that, except for event-focused decks. I.e SoB + PttT.
How to replace Trade Routes ?
Trading with the Pentoshi and Loans from the Iron Bank will be excellent. They provide resilience to Political Disaster at the cost of losing the Bowels combo in Plot and Draw phase.